I’m beginning feel like a salesperson for Talking Point Memo, but today I found an excellent essay by Josh Marshall offering ideas that make sense to me. Although I visit the site daily, sometimes I find something I need to share.
In his post Marshall ponders why the US is doing what it is doing and what the US can and cannot do. I offer this to you because I find myself with ideas about this subject floating around in my brain but without cogent articulation.
First, why is the U.S. sending arms and munitions to Israel at all? Israel has an incredibly powerful military and huge stockpiles of weapons of all sorts. Set aside the policy or moral questions. Why is it even necessary? At the very beginning of the conflict the U.S. provided fulsome support and arms in part simply to signal support, that the U.S. was backing Israel to the hilt after October 7th. But beneath that messaging and symbolism there was something much more concrete.
The U.S. was focused on preventing a broader regional conflict in the whole region. That was always the core U.S. goal and national priority. The U.S. sent two aircraft carrier groups to the eastern Mediterranean, a massive show of force, to deter Hezbollah or other Iranian proxies from opening a second front against Israel, which would have triggered massive Israeli retaliation against Lebanon and possibly Iran.
Marshall continues to follow up with why the US behaved as it did with what might be an appropriate way to handle the situation now.
If I were running U.S. policy, I would announce that the U.S. believes that the military operation has run its course, that it’s time to move to post-war, reconstruction and government in Gaza with the Palestinian Authority taking a leading role. So more weapons transfers aren’t necessary. Would that force Israel’s hand? I don’t know. But it would certainly put the U.S. in a far better position. And I suspect it would change the situation fairly dramatically.
The key in my mind is that the current Israeli government is brittle and isolated. It’s extremely unpopular in Israel. It’s very vulnerable to this kind of U.S. strong arming. If it works and leads to new elections and a better government in Israel, great. If not, it’s still pretty good for the U.S. Netanyahu’s indifference to U.S. demands is making the U.S. and Joe Biden look weak.
I encourage all to read the entire essay. The essay is available to everyone at this link.