Are extreme floods the new normal for Germany?
Deutsche Velle
Communities across southern Germany have been forced to evacuate, and many have issued states of emergency as severe flooding hit the region this weekend.
It follows days of unrelenting rainfall: Initial assessments suggest some places experienced more in 24 hours than the average for an entire month. Numerous streams and rivers have burst their banks, flooding entire towns and villages, with the states of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg particularly impacted.
It comes three years after a catastrophic flood around the Ahr Valley in the west of the country claimed over 180 lives and caused billions of euros of damage.
We are not necessarily seeing more frequent floods in Germany, says Johannes Quaas, a meteorologist at Leipzig University in eastern Germany. "But when they occur, they are now more extreme."
Germany has seen an 8% increase in mean annual precipitation since 1881 and can expect a further 6% increase in the future, according to the German Weather Service.
Quaas says the intensity of heavy rainfall in Germany is about 15% higher compared to the 19th century and 10% higher than around four decades ago. Last year alone average rainfall in Germany was 20% higher than the average for 1991-2020.
